How good are India’s chances to make it to the WTC Final?

Halfway through their campaign, last edition’s runners-up India are neither here nor there when it comes to their surge towards the WTC final in the summer of 2023.

Positioned fourth in the nine-team league standings despite their recent 2-0 series victory over Sri Lanka, Rohit Sharma & company are set to do the heavy loading.

The 2-1 series loss in South Africa in January could well come back to haunt the Indians, who, if they are to make the WTC final, will have to win almost all of their remaining games.

India have played 11 Tests in the new WTC cycle so far, winning six and losing three with two draws, one of which came at home against New Zealand in late November, a result that could also derail India’s progress later on.

Despite leading an incomplete series 2-1 in England and securing a win each against the Kiwis and the Proteas before dominating the Lankans, India are staring at a tough portion of their campaign ahead.

In their remaining fixture list, India go to England to finish off the Pataudi Trophy with a rescheduled fifth Test in Edgbaston in July, they then travel to Bangladesh for a two-Test series in the build-up to the Border-Gavaskar Trophy at home against Australia next February-March.

From the remaining seven matches of the campaign, it is believed India will have to secure victory in at least six to directly go through the next WTC final. Any lesser win/loss split, and much of the Asian giants’ hopes will rest on the results managed by other teams.

Also Read – World Test Championship 2019-2021: A XI Of The Best From The WTC Cycle

India have heavy loading to do if they are to make the WTC final in 2023.

How India can make the WTC final in 2023

At this point, amongst other teams, England, after their home and away drubbings to India and Australia, seem nearly out of the race for WTC final next year. Given their longstanding issues, the likes of West Indies, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh also look like staring down the barrel. They might be the darkhorses for certain oppositions but them coming close to securing one of the two finalists’ berth, is highly unlikely.

That leaves Australia, South Africa, New Zealand, Pakistan and India in contention for two spots. Despite two losses in five matches, South Africa have had a better-than-expected start to their campaign, winning 2-1 at home against India and securing a 1-1 draw in New Zealand. The result in New Zealand kept the Proteas’ chances going but could well have drowned it for the Kiwis.

Having lost 1-0 in India, the New Zealanders were expected to dominate Bangladesh and South Africa in their season. But in absence of regular skipper and batting giant Kane Williamson, they failed to avoid twin losses in home conditions. As their next five WTC Tests are all away from home in England and Pakistan, the defending champions could well have had their final say in the race for next year’s finale.

The in-transition Proteas, too, seems unlikely to continue their encouraging campaign with difficult tours to England and Australia looming large for them. They might just be able to withstand the struggling Englishmen but the litmus test Down Under is expected to be too big for them at this stage of their development in the new era under Dean Elgar.

India’s closest rivals for the WTC final spot are Pakistan and Australia. Pakistan, considered favourites at the start of the campaign because of a lopsided fixture list home and away, have begun shakily so far.

They conceded one Test in the series in Caribbean, before going to dominate Bangladesh but then again, have now played out two successive draws in the series at home with Australia. Having played 6 Tests in the new cycle, Pakistan were expected to have won at least 5 of these matches. But they have won only 3 and have had one defeat alongside two draws.

These two draws have also helped Australia immensely. Expected to go down heavily in the subcontinent, they have made an encouraging start to the away leg of their campaign. Having already beaten England 4-0 in the Ashes, they’ve now won 60 off the 84 points they have contested for. Given that percentage of points won is the metric used to decide final standings this time, they are currently placed at the top of the pile with 71.42% of points under their belt.

Pakistan (61.11%) stand at the second spot, followed by South Africa (60%) and India at fourth (58.33). To close this gap, India will have to win almost all of their remaining matches, while also hoping that South Africa and Pakistan both endure a downward curve in their results from here. In Pakistan’s case, even an inconsistent patch and failure to close out their remaining two home series could open up windows for India.

From India’s perspective, the Edgbaston Test in July becomes a virtual knock-out in the campaign, for a win there would keep the possibility of them winning all of their remaining seven games going, even though India can’t afford to treat their series with Bangladesh and Australia as a walk in the park. One slip-up and India will miss the WTC final race.